The End of NATO: How Trump’s New World Order Redraws the Global Map

While the EU reeled in shock at the Trump-Zelensky confrontation, the outcome was entirely predictable.

However, I didn’t expect such public displays of emotional incontinence, but here we are. Zelensky’s provocative remarks were not only unnecessary but outright foolish. A leader fighting for his country’s survival should know how to pet the egos of his most powerful allies. Yet, at least in the name of diplomacy, Trump and Vance could have shown more presidential grace and countenance.

How did it come to this? And what are we all missing?

To understand where the US is heading, we must first recognize how its foreign policy has failed since the Carter administration. In the late 1970s, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter’s national security advisor and hawk, crafted a doctrine destabilizing Iran, toppling the Shah, empowering Khomeini, and emboldening Russia. What followed was a decades-long, short-sighted strategy to keep Russia weak at all costs. NATO expanded eastward despite US assurances to Gorbachev that it would not move beyond Germany. Costly proxy wars were waged, from Afghanistan to Ukraine, with questionable militant groups like the Afghan Mujahedeen armed and unleashed to destabilize Soviet interests. Once useful pawns in this game, the Mujahideen morphed into the Taliban.

1977, Jimmy Carter and Zbigniew Brzezinski aboard Air Force One

Brzezinski’s doctrine outlived him, and Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden carried it forward. It culminated in the post-2014 Ukraine conflict. Obama and Biden doubled down on this approach, fueling Ukraine while appeasing Iran. All the while, Europe enjoyed the luxury of US military protection without the financial liability.

Then came Trump—the disruptor.

Trump doesn’t just question NATO’s value; he actively weakens it, forcing allies to pay their fair share or fend for themselves. Now that the focus has shifted to China and Iran, Ukraine is deprioritized and Germany and the EU are no longer considered strategic allies but economic competitors. Rather than continuing Brzezinski’s Eurocentric containment of Russia, Trump shifts to a Middle East-centric realignment, aiming to reshape the balance of power altogether.

The foundations of US foreign policy, rooted in NATO since 1949, are being dismantled. The new power structure is emerging in Europe and the Middle East. Israel and the *Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain—*are the center of gravity, aligned against Iran. A post-Mullah Iran will soon not only reshape the region but will tilt the global balance in favor of the US and Israel. Turkey, with its increasing neo-Ottoman ambitions, will be isolated. Russia, forced into a corner, will either become a vassal state of China or face internal collapse. Either outcome releases Putin’s grip on Central Asia and strips him of leverage. Ultimately, he will be forced to accept Chinese terms on trade and energy, reducing Russia to a resource colony.

At the heart of this shift lies Iran. Under Obama and Biden, the Mullah Regime was treated as a problem to be managed, an unpredictable but necessary player in their broader strategy. Shady nuclear deals, halfhearted sanctions, and backdoor negotiations all served to contain the Ayatollahs without ever eliminating the threat. Trump takes a different approach. Iran is no longer a problem to be managed but an enemy to be dismantled—much like the Soviet Union in the late 1980s.

The implications of regime change in Iran are seismic. Without the Mullahs’ funding, Hezbollah and Hamas would completely collapse, and Russia would lose a critical ally in the region. China’s energy corridor would be disrupted, forcing Beijing to rethink its Belt and Road ambitions. The Gulf states, long hedging their bets, would fully realign with the US and Israel. Erdogan, his Muslim Brotherhood backers, and their financier, Qatar, would find his ambitions curtailed—if not outright crushed.

We are witnessing an entire geopolitical era unraveling that began with Carter and Brzezinski five decades ago. Whether the EU follows suit or not, the shift away from NATO expansion and toward an Iran-centered Middle East realignment seems inevitable. Biden and his administration represent the old guard, desperately clinging to Brzezinski’s doctrine while watching its failures mount: NATO dysfunction, Russian resilience, Iranian belligerence, and China’s rise.

As an Iranian, I rejoice at the final collapse of Carter and Brzezinski’s disastrous legacy. But my heart breaks for Ukraine, a nation caught in the death throes of an outdated foreign policy doctrine. Zelensky must drop his arrogance and secure the best possible deal for his people before Ukraine loses whatever leverage it still has.

Trump must maintain high diplomatic pressure on Putin to ensure a deal that secures US interests without handing Russia an easy victory. This painful compromise is coming, whether anyone likes it or not.